How the demographics of Glen Eira
—–start—–Community infrastructure needs to anticipate the future requirements of the population.
This requires a close look at the future demographic profile of Glen Eira over the next two decades and matching this to land uses to create a strong local economy and meet the housing, employment, education and recreational needs of residents.
Like similar areas around Melbourne, demographic changes in Glen Eira will prompt an increase in demand for housing. It will also see a need for different housing types as long term residents seek to stay in the area as the population ages.
This coupled with an industrial site which is declining as an attractive employment hub are important considerations for the future of the East Village precinct.
Population Growth and Make-up
- Melbourne’s estimated population of 4.5 million in 2015 is projected to reach 5.3 million by 2025 and almost 6 million by 2031.
- In the medium to long term we believe that Glen Eira will not be able to accommodate its share of Melbourne’s projected population growth.
- Of the established local government areas in metropolitan Melbourne, Glen Eira has the highest proportion of its residential areas covered by the Neighbourhood Residential Zone (NRZ) – the zone that gives the greatest protection to existing residential character and densities.
- The 84% coverage of Glen Eira’s residential areas by the NRZ will be a major factor in slowing population growth levels, limiting housing diversity and choice.
- Bentleigh East has no appropriately zoned land for higher density housing other than the possible redevelopment of small areas of business land in the Centre Road shopping area.
- Based on the latest State Government ‘Victoria in Future’ population projections (2015), there is a projected need for an additional 7,500 dwellings in Glen Eira over the 15 year period from 2016 – 2031 of which 68% will be either ‘couples without children’ or ‘lone person’ households.
- Of the 441,000 people that live in the area surrounding the precinct (made up by the City of Glen Eira, Bayside City Council and parts of Stonington, Monash and Kingston) approximately 71,246 people are aged 65 years or older making up 16.1% of the total population against a Victorian average of 15.2%.
- The region’s population is ageing. By 2031 the number of people aged 65 + years in the area surrounding the precinct is expected to increase to 100,479 with 30,000 of those residents being located in Glen Eira. While the population in the area is projected to grow by 15% over the next 16 years, the population aged 65 years and over will increase by 41%.
- The number of residents aged 65 + years living in retirement village accommodation in Glen Eira is 2.5% of the total population against a Melbourne average of 4.0%. When compared to the higher than average proportion of residents aged over 65 years in Glen Eira this points towards an underlying deficiency in aged living options in the area.
- Based on population projections and the existing supply of retirement village or Independent Living Unit (ILUs), it is anticipated that by 2021 there will be a deficiency of 608 ILUs within the area surrounding the East Village precinct increasing to 1,572 ILUs by 2031.
- There is a current deficiency of 127 aged care beds in the area which is forecast to increase to 778 beds by 2021 (allowing for the delivery of those facilities currently proposed) and 2,341 beds by 2031.
- Based on the current average of 70 beds per facility, over the next 15 years an additional 30 new facilities will need to be delivered to accommodate the shortage.
- The three main household types set to increase significantly in the area in order of highest to lowest are Lone Person households, Couples without kids and Couple’s with kids. Combined these household types make up 90% of the projected population and will drive the demand for housing within the City of Glen Eira.
- Aside from new residents moving into the area, many of the existing residents are ageing which is resulting in a shift in the household type to Lone Person households and Couples without kids.
- Another driver increasing these household types is the progression of the current high proportion of the population aged under 30 years either returning to the area to purchase their ‘family home’ or purchasing their first home.
- Given that 68% of the increased household types will consist of ‘Lone person’ or ‘couples without kids’ it can be anticipated that there will be an increased level of demand for smaller, low maintenance housing options – delivery of which will be difficult given the high percentage of Neighbourhood Residential Zones within the City of Glen Eira.
- Currently the East Village precinct employs some 1,500 people across a range of office and industrial uses.
- It is anticipated that with the decline in manufacturing and the current zoning provisions this employment base will almost halve to 840 people by 2018.
- Without the critical mass that comes from a true mixed-use community it will be difficult to deliver an environment to sustain a vibrant employment base into the future.
- Successful examples of mixed used communities can be found in Australia and around the world. They provide good examples of how these types of communities can increase and preserve employment in a location whilst introducing new uses
- Fundamentally if you implemented the State Governments “20 minute neighbourhood policy” – mixed use communities would be the outcome.